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Off-Plan Returns Depend on the Project, Not the Unit Type
2026-10-20 ・ By 0xkaz (site owner) ・ Figures as of the article date
In the sixth column I wrote that in Abu Dhabi, off-plan studios and 2BR gained more and 4BR less. If Dubai showed the same, the advice would be simple: buy small off-plan. I checked Dubai's data, and the answer was different.
Overall, Studios Trail the Market and 3BR Beat It
Using the same method as the off-plan track record, I split 422 Dubai apartment projects launched since 2012 by bedroom type. For each type, I compared the median off-plan price per sq ft in the first 12 months after launch with the median resale price in the first 12 months after completion, and set that against the market (the completed-apartment price index) over the same years. 911 project and bedroom combinations had at least 5 sales on each side.
| Type | Cases | Gain (median) | Market, same period | vs market | Share beating the market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studio | 194 | +4.4% | +18.0% | -4.6% | 39% |
| 1BR | 351 | +12.5% | +18.9% | -0.9% | 46% |
| 2BR | 247 | +12.6% | +17.6% | +3.3% | 59% |
| 3BR | 111 | +22.8% | +10.9% | +9.5% | 64% |
On this table alone, bigger is better, the opposite of Abu Dhabi.
Within the Same Project, the Gap Disappears
But this compares different projects. So I kept only projects where two bedroom types could both be measured, and compared them inside the project.
| Types compared | Projects | Difference (median) | First type ahead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Studio vs 1BR | 157 | +0.3 points | 52% |
| 1BR vs 2BR | 218 | 0.0 points | 50% |
| Studio vs 2BR | 65 | +2.5 points | 58% |
| 2BR vs 3BR | 104 | +1.0 points | 52% |
Inside the same building, every type gained about the same. The gap in the first table comes from the projects, not the unit types. Projects that sold mostly studios tended to do poorly; projects that sold a lot of 3BR tended to do well.
The Pattern Also Changes with Timing
By launch period, the median difference from the market:
| Launched | Studio | 1BR | 2BR | 3BR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012–2016 | +7.9% | +11.3% | +10.0% | +23.4% |
| 2017–2020 | -12.8% | -3.2% | +2.6% | +14.0% |
| 2021 onwards | -2.2% | -4.0% | +0.5% | -4.0% |
The studios that lost badly were launched in 2017–2020. Everything launched since 2021 has tracked the market, whatever the type.
Limits of These Numbers
- Only completed and resold units are counted; projects that were never finished are missing.
- These are registered prices per sq ft; payment-plan terms, the 4% DLD fee and agency fees are not included.
- In Abu Dhabi only 2–6 projects allow a within-project comparison, so I could not run the same check there.
My Takeaway
For off-plan gains, choose the project before the unit type. Which developer, where and when it launched matter far more than studio versus 2BR. Unit type matters for yield instead: smaller flats yield more. To hold and rent, buy small; to sell at a profit, pick the project.
Information only, not investment advice. How the figures are built (methodology)
Sources: Dubai Land Department (DLD Open Data; Dubai sales before 2026 via the CC BY 4.0 republication by Dubai Real Estate Data, dubairealestatedata.com), Ejari rent contracts, Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre (ADREC), FRED, New York Fed, US Treasury. Residential (apartment and villa) sales only; cells with fewer than 5 sales are hidden. Information only, not investment advice. Methodology