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Odd Prices Reveal Handovers in Abu Dhabi Sales Data

2026-10-17 ・ By 0xkaz (site owner) ・ Figures as of the article date

I was looking at Radiant Square on Al Reem Island in Abu Dhabi when the numbers stopped making sense. This site's unit-type table showed a median 2BR price of about AED 1.04 million (1,105 AED per sq ft). Listing portals, meanwhile, had 800 sq ft 2BRs at around AED 1.6 million. Asking prices sit above sale prices, but not by 50%.

I went through the registrations one by one. The answer was in the last digits.

Handover Registrations Pulled the Median Down

Radiant Square handed over most of its units from October to December 2025. Of the 333 2BR sales registered in the last 12 months, 146 fall in November and December 2025 alone. They carry the off-plan contract prices agreed years earlier, not today's market.

Those prices have odd amounts, like 977,470 or 1,190,365, because developer price lists are set unit by unit. The same price is sometimes registered twice on the same day, once as a primary sale and once as a secondary sale.

Market resales look different: 1,450,000, 1,530,000, 1,700,000. When a buyer and a seller negotiate, they settle on a round number.

Round-Priced Resales Only

I took the 2BR resales of the last six months whose price ends in a multiple of AED 5,000.

SalesMedian price (AED)AED per sq ft
All sales (last 12 months)3331,044,0001,105
Round-priced resales (last 6 months)221,500,0001,806

At 1,806 AED per sq ft, an 800 sq ft unit comes to about AED 1.44 million. A listing at 1.6 million is a normal asking premium of around 10%.

The Test Works Across Abu Dhabi

I counted how often registered prices since April 2026 end in a multiple of AED 5,000.

Share of round prices
Abu Dhabi resales (secondary)67%
Abu Dhabi developer sales (primary)15%
Dubai completed-unit sales75%
Dubai off-plan sales22%

About seven in ten market deals are round. Only about two in ten developer sales are. It is not a perfect split, but it is good enough to use.

What I Changed on the Site

I built this test into the site's calculations.

  • Project pages now show a market resale column next to all sales in the unit-type table, and a resale line on the price chart.
  • Abu Dhabi project price changes (3 months and year on year) now compare resales with resales, or developer sales with developer sales. Radiant Square's 3-month change went from -8.2% to -0.1%.
  • Abu Dhabi's "far below comparable sales" flag now applies to round-priced resales only. Flags fell from 137 to 44. Six in ten of the old flags were developer sales or contract prices registered again.
  • Abu Dhabi area price indices now compare developer sales and resales separately, and leave out contract prices registered again.

When You Look at a Recently Handed-Over Building

Right after a handover wave, registry medians can sit far below the market. To read a building's real price level, look at resales only, and at round prices only. When an agent shows you comparable sales, ask whether each one was a developer sale or a resale.

Information only, not investment advice.

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Sources: Dubai Land Department (DLD Open Data; Dubai sales before 2026 via the CC BY 4.0 republication by Dubai Real Estate Data, dubairealestatedata.com), Ejari rent contracts, Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre (ADREC), FRED, New York Fed, US Treasury. Residential (apartment and villa) sales only; cells with fewer than 5 sales are hidden. Information only, not investment advice.