UAE Property Analyzer

I tracked 402 Dubai apartment projects from their off-plan launch to their first year of resales after completion. The median project gained +13% per sq ft. The ready-apartment market gained +19% over the same years. Only 47% of projects beat it.

So most of what off-plan buyers made was the market moving, not a discount built into buying early.

Why I Built a Registration-Data Site

I own a flat on Al Reem Island in Abu Dhabi, and most of what I read about UAE property comes from listing portals and agents. Asking prices tell you what sellers hope for. Registered sales tell you what people paid.

So I built this site. It rebuilds every day from government data: Dubai Land Department sales, Ejari rent contracts and Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre data. It covers prices, rents, gross yields, sales volumes and a market phase for each area. Below are the findings that changed how I think about the market.

Timing Beats Project Choice

The off-plan result gets clearer by launch year:

Off-plan buyers who launched into the 2014–2017 slide lost less than the market. Buyers who launched in 2019–2023 did well, but slightly worse than simply owning a ready flat. The cycle mattered more than the project.

This is price per sq ft, launch against first-year resale, same bedroom types. It is not the return on cash. Off-plan is paid in instalments, so the return on money actually paid can be higher in a rising market and worse in a falling one. Details and every project: What off-plan buyers got at completion.

New Launches Cost a Third More

Compare off-plan and completed apartments in the same area with the same bedroom count over the last 12 months. Off-plan sells at +36% per sq ft in Dubai and +29% in Abu Dhabi.

Part of that is real: a new building, a newer specification, a payment plan. But it also means a buyer at launch starts well above what the existing flat next door costs. In a few busy areas the gap is close to zero or negative. Those are listed in the rankings.

Sales Fell Before Prices Did

In July to September 2026, Dubai residential sales were -36% year on year. Off-plan sales fell -38%. Completed homes fell -27%. Over the same period the mix-adjusted price index was flat: -0.2% year on year.

The mix adjustment matters here. When new launches dominate sales, a simple median moves with what happens to sell, not with what any given flat is worth. The index compares like-for-like sales in the same project and unit type, so a wave of expensive launches does not look like a price rise.

Volume moving first and prices following later is a common pattern in property cycles. I am not calling a turn. But I watch the weekly volume split more closely than headline prices now.

Twenty Years for Context

Dubai's completed-apartment index (a fixed basket of nine established areas, 2014 = 100) stood at 122.7 in Q3 2026. That is +18% above the 2014 peak and +106% above the 2020 trough. Between 2014 and 2020 it fell -43% over six years. The 20-year history has it by area.

Where Yields Are Highest

Gross yields from contract-level Ejari rents are highest in older, cheaper areas. International City (Phase 1) leads the busy areas at 8.4%, and small flats there yield about 8.6%. Prime areas sit around 4–5%: Dubai Marina 4.3%, Downtown Dubai 4.6%, Business Bay 5.0%. Yields are gross, before service charges and vacancy, which take more off the cheap end.

What I Take From It

• I treat an off-plan launch price as a bet on the cycle, not as a discount.
• I compare any launch with completed flats nearby, same bedrooms, before anything else.
• I watch sales volumes by off-plan and ready, not only prices.

None of this is advice on a particular property. It is what the registration data says, and the site rebuilds it every day: uae-prop.0xkaz.com.