UAE Property Analyzer

The weekly report shows Abu Dhabi's home sales roughly level with a year ago. Next to Dubai, where sales are down almost 40%, Abu Dhabi looks strong. Split the numbers, though, and the picture changes.

Without Two Islands, Abu Dhabi Is Down More Than 20%

I compared residential sales in the last three months (20 July to 19 October 2026) with the same period a year earlier.

Two islands where developers have just started selling hold up the whole emirate. Everywhere else, sales are falling about as fast as Dubai's completed-home market (-26%).

The Growth Is Almost All Developer Sales

Nearly every sale on the two islands is off-plan and bought directly from the developer (a primary sale).

On Hudayriyat Island, most sales are Hudayriyat Golf Estates townhouses (732) and villas (271). In Al Jurf, it is Qasr Al Jurf Phase 3B (253). Average prices of AED 4–8.5 million put these in a different market from Abu Dhabi's ordinary apartment buyers.

Dubai's Drop Is Mostly Off-Plan

Over the same period, Dubai's off-plan sales fell from 39,988 to 22,897 (-43%) and completed-home sales from 12,741 to 9,419 (-26%). Dubai's decline is largely new-launch sales slowing down. In Abu Dhabi, two large launches arriving together hide a similar slowdown.

Prices Are a Different Story

On the price index, which compares the same project and unit type over time, Abu Dhabi is up 7.8% on a year ago and Dubai is down 0.2%. Abu Dhabi prices are still rising, including in busy established areas such as Al Reem Island (+10.7%) and Al Raha Beach (+13.7%). Fewer sales have not yet meant lower prices.

My Take

Read Abu Dhabi's "sales are holding up" headline net of the two big launches. In established areas, there are more than 20% fewer buyers than a year ago. Sales falling while prices still rise is the pattern Dubai showed before its prices turned. I will be watching whether price growth in Abu Dhabi's established areas slows over the next few months.